Source:Sing Tao Daily]

Mr. Long Shengping, director of China Real Estate Appraisal Center, announced in Beijing yesterday that according to the ranking list of sales in the third quarter, the sales area of the third quarter of Evergrande, which is going to be listed in Hong Kong soon, reached 2,303,000 square meters, and the sales amount reached 12.33 billion yuan (RMB, same below), both ranking top in the ranking list of the quarter. Mr. Long Shengping predicts that the increase amount of house price will narrow in the fourth quarter after the steep rise in the first half year, but the possibility of reduction is small.

Mr. Long Shengping estimates that the total sales amount of top 20 real estate enterprises of this year in Mainland China might reach 400 billion yuan, and the total sales area of houses might exceed 50 million square meters, which is the highest in the history. In addition, the concentration degree of the real estate industry is still increasing, which will promote the competition between the developers, and speed up the increase of reserved land area.

It is estimated that the sales amount of Vanke might reach 60 billion yuan

The sales amount of Evergrande in the first three quarters of this year reaches 24.18 billion yuan. Among them, the sales amount of the third quarter is more than double of that of the second quarter, so Evergrande can rank top in the ranking list in the third quarter. According to the analysis based on the sales amount of the first three quarters, Vanke Real Estate ranks top with the sales amount of 42,646 million yuan. Mr. Long Shengping estimates that the total sales amount of Vanke of the whole year might reached 60 billion yuan, which is the new peak among the real estate enterprises in Mainland China. The sales amount of Vanke in the first three quarters is 11 billion yuan more than that of Poly Real Estate, which ranks the second, while China Overseas Land & Investment ranks the third with the sales amount of 29,332 million yuan, indicating that China Overseas Land & Investment is still speeding up the expansion.
Mr. Long Shengping holds the opinion that along with the gradual increase of the market concentration degree, it is estimated that the direct competition between Vanke, Poly, and China Overseas Land & Investment will turn white hot. In addition, the large-scaled developers in Mainland China also form three echelons of different scales. The first echelon of which the annual sales amount exceeds 50 billion yuan includes only one “heavyset” enterprise, namely, Vanke; the second echelon of which the annual sales amount ranges from 30 billion yuan to 50 billion yuan includes five enterprises, namely, Poly Real Estate, Evergrande, Greentown, China Overseas Land & Investment, and Green Land; the third echelon of which the annual sales amount ranges from 10 billion yuan to 30 billion yuan includes 16 enterprises such as Shifang, China Resources Land, R&F, China Merchants Property Development, Sino-Ocean Land, Agile, Country Garden, and Star River.
In the comparison of the sales area of residences of the first three quarters, Evergrande Real Estate ranks top in the sales ranking list with the total sales area of 4,537,000 square meters, Vanke Real Estate ranks the second with the sales area of 4,414,000 square meters, and Green Land, Poly Real Estate, and China Overseas Land & Investment follow closely.

The house price in the fourth quarter will be stable

As for the reserved land area indicating the future development potential of the developers, according to the ranking list of reserved land areas as of the end of September, Evergrande ranks top in the ranking list with the reserved land area of 51 million square meters, and Country Garden ranks the second with the total reserved lands area of 43.6 million square meters.
Mr. Long Shengping holds the opinion that there is a wait-and-see market after the upsurge of the transaction amount and house price for several consecutive months, and the sales and purchase slows down to some extent, so the house price will gradually become stable in the fourth quarter.